Russia has announced its intention to place nuclear missiles in Belarus, sparking fears of an escalation in the West. The move comes as the United States and NATO consider arming Ukraine with advanced weapons, causing concern that Putin’s plan is aimed at raising tensions and compensating for his losses in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
Putin’s Attempt to Compensate for Losses
The transfer of nuclear weapons to Belarus appears to be Putin’s attempt to compensate for his losses and inability to win on the battleground. Despite having the capability to strike anywhere in Europe with nuclear weapons, Putin may be attempting a strategic move by transferring tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, which can have dozens of more kilotons of yield than the bombs dropped over Hiroshima in World War II.
Citing Deployment of U.S. Nuclear Gravity Bombs in Europe
Putin has defended his decision to transfer the weapons to Belarus by citing the deployment of U.S. nuclear gravity bombs in Europe. Under the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, transferring nuclear weapons to another country is not prohibited, but it raises concerns about Russia’s political weakness and increasing reliance on Belarus.
Risk of Catastrophic Loss in Ukraine
The decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons could indicate that Putin sees a catastrophic loss in Ukraine as a possibility. The move could also be aimed at preventing NATO from changing its posture in the region or forcing its hand.
Ukrainian Counterassault Against Russian Forces
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues its counterassault against Russian forces, disrupting power supplies and striking a railway depot in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol. The risk of a nuclear disaster remains high amid intensified fighting, prompting the UN nuclear watchdog to visit Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in Ukraine.
Political Developments
On a diplomatic front, Ukrainian President invited Chinese President to visit, while Spain has agreed to send six tanks to support Kyiv’s efforts to fend off Russia’s invasion. In addition, the US informed Russia that it will not exchange data on nuclear forces in response to Russia’s decision to suspend participation in the New START nuclear arms treaty.
Russian Security Council Secretary emphasized Moscow’s commitment to preventing nuclear war and military confrontation between nuclear-armed states. However, concerns remain that Putin may not be bluffing about his plans to move nuclear weapons into Belarus, potentially reabsorbing Belarus into Russia.
Reuters’ Coverage
Reuters published in-depth stories on facial recognition helping Putin curb dissent, Ukraine’s scramble for a drone fleet, peace plans and pipelines, and Wagner’s convicts’ loyalty to their leader. Meanwhile, a Moscow resident remains unfazed by Putin’s rising nuclear rhetoric.
Conclusion
As tensions rise in the West and Ukraine continues its counterassault against Russian forces, there is growing concern about the risks of escalation. While Russian forces have made marginal gains in some areas, they have also suffered heavy losses in armored vehicles. It remains to be seen whether Putin will follow through on his plan to station weapons in Belarus or whether this move is simply a strategic maneuver aimed at compensating for his losses.
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