Volatility in Borrowing Costs Due to Uncertainty Over Central Banks’ Focus on Financial Stability or Inflation
The bond market is experiencing high volatility and borrowing costs fluctuations as there is uncertainty over whether central banks would prioritize financial stability over inflation. This uncertainty has been compounded by the recent banking stress that led to a repricing of rate-hike bets, with Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failing, and Credit Suisse getting rescued. The drop in two-year yields followed a jump in February, resulting in high volatility in the Treasury market.
U.S. Treasury Yields Undergoing a Sharpest Monthly Fall Since 2008
Two-year US treasury yields have decreased sharply, nearing their biggest monthly drop since January 2008. Markets now price around a 50% chance of a last, 25 bps Federal Reserve rate hike to 4.75%5%, then cut as two-year yields are down 24 bps this quarter, their biggest quarterly drop since the 2020 COVID-19 crisis.
A Credit Crunch Could Tame Inflation While Triggering Recession
Banking stress may lead to a credit crunch that could help tame inflation in economies experiencing high inflation rates. However, some predict that this could result in recession due to banking woes.
Fed Evaluating Whether Recent Banking Stresses Will be Contained
Most U.S Treasury yields were higher on Wednesday as investors continued to evaluate whether recent banking stresses will be contained and what tighter lending standards emanating from recent bank failures will mean for Federal Reserve policy.
Personal Consumption Expenditures Data on Friday is the Next Major U.S Economic Focus
Investors are waiting for the next Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data scheduled for release on Friday, which is closely monitored by the Fed. Economists at Mizuho Securities expect some moderation in monthly PCE inflation numbers but still at a high rate.
Fed Funds Futures Traders Pricing-In a Raise in May
Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 47% chance of a 25 basis points increase in May, after seeing it as a long shot late last week. The Fed will make its interest rate decisions from here on a meeting-to-meeting basis and will take financial conditions into account in that judgment alongside other factors.
Benchmark 10-Year Yields Showing Little Change
Benchmark 10-year yields were little changed on the day at 3.570%. The Treasury saw soft demand for a $35 billion auction of seven-year notes on Wednesday, the final sale of $120 billion in short- and intermediate-dated debt supply this week.
Pending Home Sales Rose 0.8% in February; Demand for Mortgages Increased
Pending home sales rose 0.8% in February, indicating an upbeat housing market, and demand for mortgages rose as rates dropped for the third consecutive week.
Predictions Put the Fiscal Coming Year into Perspective
BofA Global’s rates and currency research team forecast a 4.75% 2-year Treasury rate with a downside risk to their forecasts if the credit cycle turns, while Spartan Capital’s chief market economist predicts lower yields as the Fed nears the end of the tightening cycle and recession is on the horizon.
In conclusion, banking stress and uncertainty regarding central banks’ impact on bond yields have created volatility in the bond market resulting in borrowing costs fluctuations. However, investors are hopeful that confidence in the banking system will be restored allowing another interest rate increase by the Fed targeting inflation reduction. Meanwhile, home sales rose and mortgage demand increased lending optimism concerning America’s economy despite current uncertainties regarding banking issues and inflation.
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