The US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.25% was justified due to high inflation, according to officials from the central bank. Boston Fed President Susan Collins deemed the move “appropriate” given elevated inflation and uncertainty around lasting impacts from the bank crisis. She anticipates another 25 basis points increase in interest rates to a new range of 5% – 5.25%, and to hold there through the end of the year. This decision comes amidst rising inflation and a resilient banking system.
The Need for More Rate Hikes
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also wants to raise rates by 0.25%, as he sees substantial inflationary pressure and a resilient banking system. He is keen to avoid the situation experienced in the 1970s where backing off on inflation too soon resulted in stronger inflation. Recent data underscores the need for the Fed to do more in bringing inflation down to its 2% target.
Avoiding Another Banking Crisis
Recent bank failures may lead to a more conservative outlook and tightening of lending standards, offsetting the need for more rate hikes. The Federal Reserve remains prepared to use all tools at its disposal in keeping the banking system safe and sound. Officials will monitor financial conditions closely and use all tools at their disposal to keep the banking system safe and sound.
Wall Street’s Expectations
Wall Street expected Fed rate cuts later this year due to the assumption that the economy would slow down or even face a recession. The Fed has raised a key short-term rate from near zero to a top end of 5% in just one year, which has put more stress on the economy and contributed to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).
Furthermore, Clarida, a Fed Vice Chairman, spoke at a conference held by the National Association of Business Economists and stated that he would have been hesitant to raise rates by 0.5% at the last meeting, even if the SVB failure did not happen. Clarida believes there is a disconnect between what the Fed thinks is required to reduce inflation and what the markets are pricing in.
Inflation Rates
The rate of inflation in February was 6%, three times higher than the Fed’s 2% target, and well above the 1.5% annual average in the decade before the pandemic. Although inflation slowed toward the end of 2022, price pressures have not relaxed much in the past several months.
Clarida does not think the Fed is going to finish raising rates in May and then start cutting rates a few months later as many investors are betting. He believes that if inflation doesn’t fall faster, the Fed may raise rates again later in the year, and the increase in rates may not necessarily be a result of the recent failure of SVB.
Boston Fed Chief on Interest Rate Hikes
The Boston Fed chief sees quarter-point increases as an “appropriate” pace to tame inflation. Data is expected to show that price pressures in February ran more than double the Fed’s target. Recent banking stress adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, but tighter lending standards may reduce the need for further rate increases.
Economic projections released in March show that the median official sees rates rising to 5.1% by the end of this year, suggesting one more quarter-point rate increase in 2023. Traders expect rate cuts later this year due to expectations that the banking crisis will push the US closer to recession, despite swift action from federal authorities to stabilize the banking system.
In conclusion, rising inflation has prompted US Federal Reserve officials to raise interest rates by 0.25%. The central bank remains prepared to use all tools at its disposal to keep the banking system safe and sound, and officials will be closely monitoring financial conditions to ensure their efficacy. While rate cuts are expected later in the year, stakeholders agree that additional rate hikes may be necessary if inflation continues to rise.
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