Scientists Predict that Humans May Soon Break Longevity Records

Scientists around the world are exploring the concept of biological age as a way to understand and measure how healthy our cells and organs are, and how it changes as we age. Biological age is different from our chronological age, which is simply the number of years that have passed since we were born. While scientists have yet to agree on a single numeric value for biological age, recent studies suggest that it may soon be possible to slow down or even reverse human aging.

Exploring Biological Age and Anti-aging

Research in recent years has used blood tests to predict age-related diseases and decline, but it is still unclear if these markers can determine everyone’s exact biological age. Some drugs like metformin and rapamycin could possibly slow down aging at the cellular level, but conclusive results are still pending. On the other hand, healthy lifestyle practices like eating well, exercising, meditating, and maintaining strong community ties are believed to impact people’s longevity and healthspan. In essence, biological age might just be a new way for scientists to talk about health.

Potential for Human Lifespan

Jeanne Calment holds the world record for the oldest person, dying at 122 years old in 1997. However, economists David McCarthy and Po-Lin Wang believe that a true record-breaker may just be around the corner. The ceiling for survivability seems to have been stuck in the 11th decade since the last century. But now experts suggest that with policy choices that support the health and welfare of elderly populations, we may see breakthroughs in life expectancy.

Improvements in sanitation, healthcare and nutrition have allowed more people to reach old age, compressing (rather than extending) the distribution of mortality past a certain point. Gompertz Maximum Age (GMA), which estimates when an individual might first reach an assumed mortality plateau, suggests that people born between 1910 and 1950 saw a significant leap in survivability, implying postponement of mortality equal to around 10 years. It is expected that some retirees might break longevity records by the year 2060.

Breaking Longevity Records

Previous studies suggested that the maximum life span had been reached, but a recent study by scientists from the University of Georgia used a mathematical model to project mortality trends and predict that longevity records will be broken in the next 40 years or so. They analyzed mortality data from hundreds of millions of people in 19 countries who were born between the 1700s and the late 1900s. Mortality rates among people aged 50 to 100 were explored in people with different birth years.

The researchers found that people born between 1910 and 1950 did not see sudden upticks in mortality at old ages to accompany decreases in mortality seen at younger ages, and this trend was different from most other birth cohorts. In most countries examined, maximum age is projected to rise dramatically in the future, leading to breaking of longevity records.

While this model projects that a Japanese woman born in 1919 or later has at least a 50% chance of living to age 122 or older, it does not account for advances in medicine or biotechnology that may extend human lifespan in the years to come. To address questions about aging, research with large animal cohorts maintained under stable laboratory conditions should be investigated further.

As policymakers and scientists work together to understand biological age, improve lifestyle factors, and develop new treatments for aging-related diseases, we may soon see more people breaking records for longevity. For now, though, there is no definitive way to slow down or reverse human aging yet.

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