Israel Prepares for Possible War with Iran Without US Assistance

Rising Tensions in the Middle East

Israel is ramping up its military preparations for a possible war with Iran, amid rising tensions in the region. Former national security adviser Yaakov Amidror has warned that Israel needs to be prepared to fight without US assistance, as the likelihood of a war with Iran is increasing. Recent rocket attacks from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria have been widely seen as Iranian proxies, and there are concerns that Iran’s increasing confidence and new agreements with Arab states pose a greater threat to Israel’s security.

IDF Warns of More Likelihood of War Than Restored Calm

The IDF Military Intelligence Corps has warned that the prospect of war is currently more likely than restored calm. Tensions are expected to persist after the Muslim holy month of Ramadan ends later this month. Israel should hold off for the moment on retaliating to recent attacks by Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian proxies in Syria. Recent days have seen a rocket attack from Syria, rocket fire from the Gaza Strip, clashes at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, terror attacks in Israel and the West Bank, and a suspected Iranian drone launched from Syria.

Factors Contributing to Increased Likelihood of War

The IDF Military Intelligence Corps predicts an increased likelihood of Israel being drawn into a real war in the coming year. Factors contributing to this prediction include the U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East, growing direct friction between Israel and Iran, instability in the Palestinian arena, and a narrower scope regarding Israel’s freedom of military action due to the crisis at home.

Role of Israeli Leadership in Making Security Decisions

Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council, argues that the IDF’s assessment ignores the critical component of what the Israeli side will do. The Intelligence Corps is limited in its ability to read the situation because it mainly deals with actions on the enemy side. Israeli leaders, who are mostly politicians, are expected to factor developments on the “blue side” into their future forecast equation.

Netanyahu has historically preferred exercising caution and restraint in security matters over taking irresponsible steps. However, in 2019, Netanyahu sought quick revenge on Islamic Jihad after they fired a rocket at an election rally he attended in Ashdod, leading to concerns of conflicts of interest and rash decision-making. His recent conduct and failed attempt to fire Gallant do not inspire confidence in his judgment in the near future, and gatekeepers must be careful to prevent ulterior motives in security decision-making.

Iranian and Hezbollah Criticize Israel

In addition to rising tensions and internal divisions within Israel, Iranian and Hezbollah leaders have criticized Israel for its actions in Gaza, the West Bank, Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon. Iran’s Foreign Ministry tweeted a video criticizing Israel’s “waning existence,” while Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah mocked Israel and warned against its actions in the region.

Palestinian and Iranian leaders have also commented on the growing internal divisions within Israel sparked by the judicial reform crisis. Hamas deputy head Saleh al-Arouri says Israel is in a state of conflict and heading towards internal disintegration. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi discussed the weakness of Israel with Syrian President Bashar Assad and claimed support is growing for the “axis of resistance” against Israel.

Conclusion

As tensions continue to rise between Israel, Iran, and their proxies, Israel is preparing for a possible war without US assistance. The role of Israeli leadership in making critical security decisions will be pivotal in determining the future direction of this conflict. With rising criticism from Iran and Hezbollah, as well as internal divisions within Israel itself, it remains to be seen how this volatile situation will play out.

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