Xi and Putin’s “No-Limits” Strategic Partnership
During their 40th personal meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced their “no-limits” strategic partnership, pledging support for each other’s confrontations with the US. With the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces, western speculators are questioning whether Xi knew of Putin’s plan and gave it a green light.
Despite Ukraine preventing Russian forces from achieving Putin’s objective, western observers believed that China was having second thoughts about supporting Russia’s war. However, they misjudged Xi’s intentions for his planned expansionism in the Indo-Pacific. China has increased its purchases of Russian oil and gas while also supplying Russia with dual-use technology.
The Biden administration diluted its fading “red line” and prohibited only loosely-defined “lethal” items, which provides a window of opportunity for Sino-Russian cooperation in Ukraine. Nevertheless, Xi’s visit with Putin eroded China’s diplomatic isolation and reminded the world of the nature of China’s single-party communist regime.
Putin Praises Xi’s Position on Ukraine Issue
Despite Xi never condemning Russia for its current invasion of Ukraine or previous invasions, Putin praised his counterpart’s position on the Ukraine issue as “objective and impartial.” Analysts suggest that Xi seems intent on having Putin keep the war going as it serves China’s interest in undermining US “imperialism” in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Sino-Russian “Coordination for the New Era” will significantly stretch western resources and resolve. The US needs to build on its success in mobilizing NATO countries to raise their individual contributions. The Biden administration needs to clearly commit to defending Taiwan to address the Sino-Russian dual challenge.
Caution Against Alternate Peace Plans for Ukraine
Ukraine and the US warn against peace plans that do not call for the full withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, states that concessions to Russia would encourage further attacks on democracy and allow Russia to rebuild its military capabilities.
China’s 12-point position paper on peace has been cautiously received by Kyiv and Moscow. Senior Ukrainian lawmakers have expressed disappointment with the plan as it would do little to achieve a sustainable peace. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warns against the danger of well-intentioned ceasefire calls that may freeze the conflict and allow Russia to regroup.
Kyiv has its own 10-point “peace formula” which allows selective contributions from countries and covers a range of issues from radiation safety to territorial integrity. Ukraine’s peace plan has been supported by 141 UN member states, the Group of Seven advanced economies, and the European Union. However, Ukraine will only accept peace if it guarantees the cessation of Russian aggression, complete withdrawal of Russian troops, and the restoration of territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders.
China’s Peace Proposal for Resolving the Ukraine Crisis
China facilitated a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, followed by its State Counsellor presenting a 12-point peace proposal for ending the Ukraine crisis. The US recognised China’s role in brokering the Saudi-Iran peace deal but dismissed the Ukraine peace proposal citing China’s suspect credentials.
President Xi has staked his personal prestige on this initiative, resulting in Putin accepting and endorsing it. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has announced his China visit next week to discuss Xi’s peace framework and help establish conditions for talks in Ukraine. Xi’s peace initiative has triggered debates on China emerging as the new peacemaker and what it means for the future of American global leadership.
Ukraine is showing a subtle and pragmatic approach to China’s peace proposal, making direct talks with Xi a strong possibility. The proposal marks another stepping stone in China’s global aspirations and challenges its credentials as a peacemaker. Other world leaders, like Turkey’s Erdogan and India’s Modi, are also vying for a role in mediating the Ukraine war.
As China’s assertive behavior in its immediate periphery has been a drain on its credibility, India must take cognisance of these developments and take bold initiatives of its own to avoid being pushed into taking sides and playing second fiddle.
Image Source: Wikimedia Commons
