Concerns over the Pressure to Negotiate and Breaking Fighting Spirit
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is increasingly concerned about the consequences of losing the city of Bakhmut to Russian forces. The fall of this strategically insignificant eastern city would offer Moscow its first battlefield victory in months, a symbolic victory which Putin could use to his advantage in gaining support from his society, China, Iran and even the West. Zelenskyy worries that if Bakhmut falls, he would face immense pressure to negotiate with Russia and potentially make unacceptable compromises that could hurt Ukraine’s national interests.
Furthermore, if Russia wins in Bakhmut, there will be a significant cost to Ukraine’s fighting spirit. This could lead to a lack of confidence in their ability to defend themselves from further Russian aggression. The Ukrainian government has repeatedly stated that it will not agree to any terms requiring it to cede territory to Russia.
Symbolic Importance vs Strategic Consequences
Zelenskyy is seemingly more concerned about the symbolic costs of losing the city than the strategic consequences. However, holding onto the city is hurting Ukraine’s ability to launch another counteroffensive by dedicating valuable personnel and resources. Despite this challenge, Zelenskyy and his top military advisors have argued against pulling back their forces.
He notes that Ukraine will ultimately prevail against a big enemy with small hearts through a series of small victories and steps. Nevertheless, he acknowledges that losing the battle for Bakhmut would be more of a costly political defeat than a tactical one.
Potential Consequences for Peace Deal Negotiations
If Ukraine loses in Bakhmut, it may signal international support for a peace deal that could require unacceptable compromises from Ukraine. Zelenskyy fears that Russia could push further if they sense Ukraine is weak. He invites Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is traditionally aligned with Russia, to visit Ukraine. Zelenskyy also worries that the war could be impacted by shifting political forces in Washington, and that Ukraine cannot win without US help.
Zelenskyy’s Recent Train Trip and Views on the Ongoing Conflict with Russia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently made an extensive two-day train trip to southeastern and northern parts of Ukraine. He requests modern warplanes but acknowledges that no Western country has agreed to provide them thus far. Moreover, Ukraine’s military has received billions of dollars of ammunition and weaponry from Western nations, but some promised weapons, including the US-made air defense system Patriot, have not yet been delivered.
Zelenskyy criticized Russian President Putin, calling him an “informationally isolated person” who has “lost everything” over the last year of war. He does not believe Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons. Finally, he opposed any plan that would legitimize Russia’s control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which Russia took control of last year.
The state railway system has remained remarkably stable throughout the war and largely untouched by the conflict. Zelenskyy called for tougher sanctions against people in Putin’s inner circle.
In conclusion, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s concern about the possible consequences of Bakhmut falling are important especially if it falls into Russian hands. The battle in Bakhmut is one which he considers strategically significant and although its strategic significance may be insignificant, there are consequences for both sides should either win or lose this battle.
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